Saturday, August 13, 2011

UP Basketball First Round Evaluation


Well what is there to say, at least UP won't be going through another winless season.

The story of the year so far has got to be Jose Anton "Jett" Manuel. Manuel is no newcomer to the team, but was only getting garbage minutes last year. With the departure of big shots like Martin Reyes, Woody Co, and Magi Sison, a void has emerged which Silungan, Mbah, Gamboa and Manuel have filled. Well, to a certain extent at least.



Manuel has certain taken a leap, going from only playing 6.4 minutes last year to leading the team in scoring this year. His efficiency from the field is certainly nothing to write home about, he's only making 36.4% of his shots. He's only shooting 24.1% from three, and that mark is more indicative of the shooting ability on the team because he's the team's leader in three point percentage despite his poor shooting percentage. He's been able to score more than anyone else on the team primarily because of his ability to get to the free throw line. He's averaging around 4 trips to the line per game, leading the team in that category, while shooting a team best 84.6% from that area. Those points from the free throw line have made up over a quarter of his points, and have definitely been a big factor for his success.

Despite his improvement, Manuel's game has its flaws as well. He is turning the ball over at a horrible rate, having 24 turnovers in 7 games, a number that leads the team. Turnovers are a very damaging mistake, and one that has sunk the UP team for years now, since they often give the opponent uncontested or lightly contested buckets in the form of fast break points.

Mike Silungan is a guy who seems to have taken over Alvin Padilla's role as an all around producer. The supposed star of the team, I have made it no secret that I am displeased with some aspects of his game. Every time Mike Silungan takes a three, an angel gets its wings taken away. I just do not understand why a player that shoots 15.6% from three this year is taking 6.4 threes per game, it is an absolute recipe for disaster. He is akin to Baron Davis, who attempts 5.1 threes per game in his career despite only hitting 32.1%. His three point shooting is the number one culprit for his career 32.8% field goal percentage, and it doesn't help his efficiency that he's only shooting 40.9% from free throw line this year.

Despite his horrible shot selection, Silungan does have his redeeming qualities. He is a very nice all around contributor, being second on the team in rebounds, first in steals, second in blocks, second in scoring, and second in assists. The value of his assists are negated though, because he has precisely the same number of assists as he does turnovers, being only a close second to Jett Manuel in that area. But credit must be given where credit is due. Silungan is a surprisingly good contributor in the blocks department, having 7 blocks in 7 games when he had 3 all of last year. He's also been surprisingly adept at not fouling, having only 8 fouls total so far.

Ifeanyi Mbah has been Magi Sison's successor for the center spot, and he's done a competent job at it so far. He isn't the scorer that Sison was, he's not the rebounder that Sison was either, but Mbah's defensive contributions are better as well as his ability to take care of the ball (perhaps because he doesn't get to handle the ball as much). His shotblocking is his number one asset, being able to rack up 17 blocks in 7 games. His rebounding also needs mentioning. Mbah is an above average defensive rebounder, grabbing over 20% of all available defensive rebounds. He's less stellar but still above average on the offensive glass, grabbing 9.1% of offensive boards. Despite these numbers though, Mbah's rebounding could easily be higher if he learned how to properly box out.

Mike Gamboa has been a huge part of the improvement in the team's assist to turnover ratio this year. Gamboa so far has a stellar 3:14 is to 1 assist to turnover ratio, committing only 7 turnovers in 7 games. Despite this fact, his offense is a big letdown for him. Why? Because he's a mini-Mike Silungan. He has so far attempted 5 threes per game, despite the fact that he's only been able to convert 19.4% of them. Early on he was scoring at a good rate, but as the season went on, his threes attempted kept going up and up and as a result his scoring kept going down and down. If he wants to score, he should be getting himself to the free throw line. He's shot 7 for 11 from the line so far, a solid enough mark when all is considered.

Jelo Montecastro is the last component of the team's rotation, being the last player to get 20+ minutes a game. He's by far the most efficient scorer on the team. Why? Because he doesn't take threes. He's attempted one three-pointer so far, and because of that he's got a very good 47.5% field goal percentage. This efficiency is the reason that he's been able to be the team's 3rd leading scorer despite attempting 37 fewer shots that Mike Silungan. He's been able to get to the line at a good rate, but it's all been for naught since he's shooting a team worst 31.8% from that area. He's been a decent contributor in other areas as well, being able to maintain a positive assist to turnover ratio (barely) with 14 assists to 13 turnovers. He's also second in the team in steals, but considering minutes played, he's getting more steals per minute that anyone else on the team.

Miggy Maniego is a guy people might raise they eyebrows at when they find out he's a co-captain, but not me. I think he has always been an underrated contributor to the team, and here's why. He is the single best offensive rebounder on the entire team, grabbing a very high 12.5% of all available offensive rebounds. But he's sadly let down by his defensive rebounding, since he is one the other end of the spectrum in that regard. He only grabs 2.9% of all defensive rebounds, or to illustrate it better, he's only grabbed 2 defensive rebounds in 73 minutes of play. He's also a surprisingly good playmaker, with 1/3 of his possessions ending up in an assist. He's also been able to take care of the ball, having only 3 turnovers for the season, giving him a 2.33 is to 1 assist to turnover ratio. The thing that is holding Maniego back the most is his offense, which on an offensively starved team like this year's team, is a recipe for disaster. He has been solid so far from the free throw line though, hitting all 7 of his shots there this year so far.

Mark Juruena is a guy that I'd like to talk about since I think he's slightly underrated. The case as to why he's not getting minutes is the same as Maniego's, he can't score to an even greater extent than Maniego. But what he can do is rebound. Juruena has been a top 3 rebounder on the team for the last 2 years. This year, he's just slightly below Maniego in terms of offensive rebounding by grabbing 11.2% of offensive boards, but he couples that with a slightly above average defensive rebound rate of 15.9% to give him a total rebound rate bested only by Mbah. He's also a suprising passer, with almost a quarter of his possessions ending in an assist, 3rd best on the team.

My prediction for the final win total of the team? 5.

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